Interesting Week

Well, some odd goings on this week. First of all, I ended up on 2p2 for the first time in ages. Started looking over some posts of people's stats, and realized that if I'm going to move up, I probably have to re-learn a solid TAG game, where I actually have good vpip v. PFR percentages, a decent aggression factor, all that jazz. So, I gave that a shot at some .02/.05 6max, with a new program that I'm thinking I may get instead of Poker Tracker, Hold'em Manager. The thing's pretty sweet, and it's only 1/2 the price of PT.

So I started with one table, running a HUD with standard info, and playing some actual poker for a change instead of set mining. I got to TAG it up, and did pretty well.

I ran:

VPIP: 24.2
PFR: 22.8
AF : 5.43
WTSD: 25.5
W$SD: 47.5

BB/100: 42.35

Not too shabby, not at all

So then I got to reading a bit from Pokey talking about how these people play very Loose/Passive preflop, then TAG postflop, playing serious poker and pretty much destroying. Since I feel like postflop is my stronger point anyway, this seemed like a great fit. I gave it a go, and the first day I ended up winning 43.5bb/100, plus I was 12 tabling, so the $/hour was much higher.

I tried it again for my first 2 hour session today, and it still seems to be going well. Here's the stats.












And by position:
















So I'm not entirely sure about HEM. I love the HUD, but I very VERY much dislike the big blinds per 100 instead of big bets/100 to which I'm accustomed. Maybe there's an option to change that somewhere. Also, it didn't actually keep my 2 databases seperate, so I had to purge yesterday's results because on a seperate database I was working with my buddy on his multi-tabling game, and his numbers severely affected my stats. Soooo, I don't know, we'll see. Oh yeah, that's the thing, can't use poker EV with HEM, but can't with PT3 either. So that kind of sucks, I like that program.

Another option is I guess just buying pokerace HUD, but for that money, why not get HEM? If all I even use it for is the hud, then the extras are just a bonus.

Here's my EV for the day, I'm guessing that I ran above expectation, cuz I won a lot of my all ins. Even though I was supposed to, I only took one bad beat the entire session, so it's likely that I was supposed to win less than I did.
















So that beat more than made up for the wins, I'm glad to see that. If I keep running my SB's higher, then that's profit for me. Can't be anything but happy with my winrate, that's for sure. And it actually seems to take less mental effort for me than playing very tight.

Here's another EV graph:














One last thing, for the first time ever, I'm making money on suited connectors. Not unsuited connectors, so maybe I'll start weaning those out, or at least only play them in position. I'll get back after my next few thousand hands.

Not too shabby

I don't know if I discovered or rediscovered this today, but 16 tabling is for me. Nice increase in number of hands per hour, and maintaining the same 18.5bb/100 winrate. I managed to get in just over 1300 hands in about 1.75 hours. So I'm pulling roughly 743 hands/hour. 16 does get a bit crazy, but I found a moment in there that was calm enough to get a screen cap.


















Some of the tables are much more hidden than usual, but it wasn't bad at all. At this point I really don't need to watch tables anyway, so when action's on me it pops up, and I quickly evaluate and make a decision, then go on to the next one.


So here's the tracker stats for the entire day. I got in just over a couple thousand hands, which was nice, but I need to get more in. I made solid progress towards my next bankroll target, netting 17.4% of my goal. I'm hoping that I can get there tomorrow or the next day, but I'm almost positive life's going to get in the way of that.

















As a note, I played extremely positionally aware today, significantly so. I don't know if my aggression level is too high, as I did press several nut hands very hard, blasting opponnents off their holdings. A review of these pots would be good to look for necessary adjustments in strategy.

A nice little histogram depicting the number of +EV and -EV bets I made for the session, sorted by bet size.

Here's the final EV graph for the day. I won more than EV said I should have!!! Feels like a victory even though it's not a great thing, lol. Nice to be on the lucky side for a day. Paradoxically, the reason for this outcome is that hands where I was a solid favorite held up more than average. I did have one suckout at the 1359th hand where I flopped middle set versus a made flush, getting it all in. The board paired and I won, EV (-$0.41) winnings +$1.24

However the beat I took was rather severe in comparison. Here I flopped bottom set and got all in on the flop versus middle pair plus a flush draw, which left them drawing only to a flush and the board couldn't pair. Here my EV was +$1.62 and winnings (-$4.83) a tough beat to say the least, but my only of the day.

The true nature of my above EV day lies in the hands where I was a solid favorite and won. At approximately the 1211th hand, the 1466th hand, and the 2025th, I got money in with AA v KK preflop, value bet bottom set versus top pair weak kicker through the river, and got in on the flop with a full house versus an overpair respectively, winning all those hands. These wins were enough to spike my money won over my EV for the day.

Here's the graph

Moving up???

Well, according to the rules laid out by Mr Harrington, I'm supposed to be patient like and wait until I've accumulated a bankroll that is 50% larger at the next level than that which I started with at my current level before I move up and try the next game.

I started this level wayyyyyy short, only 6 buyins, so I'm not counting that as my number. Instead I'm going to go with 15. I feel like at this level, I should never be running so cold that 15 full buy ins won't last me. With this as my guideline, I need 23 buyins at .02/.05 before I give it a go. That comes to $230, which puts me about $100 away.

My winrate over about 10,000 hands is at 18bb/100 which = $0.72/100 hands
I'm going to need to play about 7200 more hands to reach the next level if my play and winrate hold. That doesn't sound bad, and I think I can be there by tomorrow, so I'm going to put in some serious game time. It's been going around 600 hands per hour, so in 12 hours of play, I should be there. Time to get on it.

Winnings finally = EV

Well I found a way to do it. I caught up my amount won with my expected value. I managed to download a trojan that was so bad, my entire hand history database was destroyed. So now, it's back to even. $0 won, $0 EV, lol. Actually as of this, I've already played one session, 800 some hands, and I'm about 20 bb's south of expectation, nothing major.


Been working on teaching one of my buddies. He's taking to it quickly, and put together a couple nice sessions. Unfortunately all his hands, about 2k, were also lost, so we'll rebuild that. Probably get a couple thousand in tomorrow. We just need to tweak his agression with single top pair type holdings, but other than that it's been solid.


I played in an unbelievable donkament today, and it just reinforced how I just don't get how to win tournys. I mean, how does this hand play out this way?























It wouldn't show my opponents hands in the converter, but at the point of my all in on the flop, MP (all in for 400ish) held Kh5d for king high. The guy who had me covered a bit held Ah6d for ace high. At this point the %'s were:





















Running diamonds come on the turn and river giving A6 the winning flush. So standard.....this makes me want to vomit. Why don't I win more tournaments? I don't know.

Will my winnings ever catch my EV again?

So I had a day off from cards, and was itching to get some time in today. So far I've had 2 sessions, each about 2 hours longs. Here's my tracker stats for the day.


















Pretty decent right? I mean a 14bb/100 winrate is definitely okay, but here's the thing. This was my worst running day yet. I'm stone cold, unreal, can't win with a massive % lead to save my chips. Here's my EV for the day.














My EV ended at +750bb for the day, and my actual was +326bb. I ended today 424bb short of where I was supposed to. These days keep going, but I've been fortunate enough to be still sticking some bank onto my roll at least. So for the week, I'm running 651bb cold for now. I'm gonna need some KK's to beat AA's and not the way it went today where my AA didn't hold, to make up for these shenanigans.

Not bad, my EV winrate for this week is 35.28bb/100. Pretty much what I ran today also. I'm definitely a fan of being a calling station here, cuz it's helping my bankroll pretty well. That's it for now. I plan on playing a few more hours later, and maybe I'll tear it up and actually win as well, that'd be sweet.

The newest play I use, and I still can't believe it works, is the jam pots with the nuts on the river and stack people. It's amazing, and this hand has got to be my favorite one yet. I absolutely just crammed my quad 10's right down this guy's throat and he took it like a champ!

For those of you wondering what he felt compelled to call the river bet with, he had AQ. Top pair top kicker. That's how easy it is to take their money, and I can't imagine how much I was leaving on the table by trying to peddle the nuts for bets that made sense in comparison to the pot. Let me repeat, this is not an uncommon way for this hand to play out at these tables. Insane!!!!!

One last thing, here's a snapshot of all my hands for the last couple months.

Back to the grind

So to start things off, here's today's PT stats. This was all 12 tabling, .01/.02 after finding out that I was more $EV playing .01/.02 than if I'd moved up to .02/.05, at least for now. Once I start building my roll up, I'm going to focus more on moving up levels, and maintaining any winrate. It will improve as I adapt to the current level, and once that sets in, I'm almost assured of a higher $/hour.

















Fairly standard tight play with a vpip of 18.6, but here's where things were a little different. I backed way off on the aggression. I felt like I was blowing people off their holdings too often, and that I stood to improve my winrate through smaller 1/2 1/3 pot type value bets. Further, my slower play would allow players to bluff at me where I could simply call them down with vulnerable one pair holdings and hands of that nature. This theory was either very good, or I just happend to run amazingly, because take a look at the winrate. Just under 43bb/100!!! The fact that I accomplished this through tight/passive play really is strange to me. But I saw it happening over and over. I'd have a hand like KQ and limp preflop along with 3 or 4 others. Flop comes K26 and I check, somebody in back bets smallish, or maybe even pot, I call. Check the turn, they bet I call. Check the river, they either check behind or bet and I call, and they muck something like K9, KT, K5 even! (It was suited) So maybe there's merit to this, but maybe not.

I did get aggressive at times, but only when I was holding the nuts or close to it. If I thought the other guy had a hand he would have trouble laying down, I wouldn't just value bet it either, I'd shove a stack in, even if the pot had $0.12 in it, I'm shoving $7.52 and stacking people!!!!

So when all was said and done, I decided to check out my EV play for the day, and was I in for a surprise. I knew I'd taken a few beats here and there, but I made some bad plays myself, since I was calling down weaker than normal, and I think I got stacked once or twice where I didn't have to be. Anyway, here's the EV graph.














So I was still below expectation for the day, and while it was nothing like yesterday's, this was still a fairly decent amount. About 45 big bets, which is just under one full buy in at most tables. Not horrible, but that's more than 10% of my total winnings for the day.













Here's my EV for the week. I'm running low, obviously from the last few posts, but what I care about is the red line. Look at how sharp the rise is at the end. That jump was today's play. My EV went through the freaking roof by becoming a passive player. I think I'm coming closer to optimal strategy against these tables. I can't forget my aggressive roots, and I'll definitely be 6maxing a bit to retain my ability to aggress, but this is pretty sweet. Nothing to do for now but get more hands in and keep being more winner.

+EV.....-$$$

One of those days, man I hate em though. Played my ass off this morning at 6max, and just couldn't get it right. I didn't play well, and was only slightly +EV after several hundred hands, so that loss I didn't mind, cuz I didn't deserve any bank.

Since I wasn't in the zone for 6max, I figured it'd be simple enough to pull my act together, screw down tightlike and 12 table it. And it was, I got Sklansky bucks at 28bb/100, however one big fly in the ointment here. I lost for the session, yeah I got pwned by some serious bad beats.

Good play, bad results... oh well that's what this game's about. Gotta remind yourself that when you have one of these days. I can't imagine what it's like to run this bad for a month or more, probably able to drive men insane.

Ha ha, wow, the whole reason this post started is that I took a break for a bit. Came back focused and ready to continue on doing what I was doing. I then realized why am I still sitting at .01/.02? And opened up 9 .02/.05 tables. It'd been awhile and the stakes actually seemed big! HA what a joke that is. I used to play $2/$4 NL and didn't think that was anything, now .02/.05 is big!!! Anyway, wasn't sure if I was doing something wrong, being too passive, afraid of the bet sizes, because results = not good. It sure felt like I was letting people run me over too much, but I got the news. I wasn't playing great, 8.78bb/100 EV, but I actually made 0.54bb/100!!! Go ME! Running sick cold today, MLB2k8 it is. Here's the EV graph of so far today, .01/.02 and .02/.05 statistics combined.






























So this is today's PT info so far. As you can see, I played limited amounts of 6max and .02/.05. The latter I felt like I was getting run over so I decided to quit and possibly go back down to .01/.02, but instead I'm just going to take a short break here, then jump back on the .02/.05 tables in a bit. I'm doing fine, just not winning. An interesting side note, I made more EVbb/100 at the .01/.02 than I did at .02/.05 today, so in reality I should still definitely play the .01/.02. I had an EV of 27.5bb/100 which = $1.10/100 hands, while only $0.878/100 at .02/.05. Perhaps I'll stay at .01/.02 a bit longer.....

My oh my

If I had gotten more sleep last night, I'd still be playing now, but I for some reason was really tempted to call a $1.60 all in bet at a pot totaling $2.50 on an oesd. I'm attributing that to tiredness, and immediately took off auto post blinds.

So what I found was this. I was playing last night on full tilt, and for some reason thought it'd be fun to go to play chip. So I did, 1000/2000 nl and I'd find short tables, heads up to 3 opponnents. I was destroying, obviously it's play chip so it's different right? No, this table was honestly really good. Lots of aggression and solid plays, I knew this was better than the play at .01/.02 for sure. I was playing LAG and killing, just killing. I figured, why not try this for real?
LAG is wayyyyy more my style. Tight aggressive leaves me feeling cramped, and I'd much rather be using the logic of, I'm going to raise with 57s in the hijack cuz it's folded to me, instead of "I'll fold because 57s isn't that good." I like to play, and I like to not care about the cards.


So I sat at a couple 6max tables, .01/.02, to focus on players, and do what I do. Agress a whole bunch, and try to rip pots. Here's how it went:




















So sick, loving it. I love playing this way even more cuz of my buddy. He plays on FTP as beerconnoisseur and any time anybody has a high vpip or pfr, that guy's instantly a donkey, and will be marked as such. I can't imagine the notes he'd have on me if we played against each other and I had a username he didn't know.

We've talked about varying vpips and stuff before and my feeling is that if your vpip and pfr are both high, you're good to go, LAG it up, but he just doesn't seem to see it that way. He's a TAGger all the way.

If you look at the top players in the biggest games today, OMGClayAiken, durrr, Peter Jepsen, DaEvils, spiked, they all employ high vpips, yet yield results in the very top of the largest games around, which in itself speaks volumes for the LAG style.Gotta rest up, then put some time and hands in.

Hit my roll, sort of

Well I surpassed the $100 mark today, meaning I have 20 full buy ins for $5, and just enough to be considered an actual bankroll for the smallest of games. In celebration, I'm going to destroy these limits, as well as move up to .02/.05 again as long as there's enough games going to 9 table.



I made a solid breakthrough and I think a lot of it came from having a sort of sweat session. What I realized is this: You must treat top pair top kicker like a red-headed step child, it's not something you really want to get involved in, and you shouldn't really care about it. Pouring over my stats in PokerEV, I found a disturbing thing. With pairs I'm a winner, and a solid one, however the pairs I really profit with are overpairs, top pair weak kicker, and middle/weak pairs. That's right, I'm +EV with all single pairs that AREN'T top pair top kicker. I'm falling victim to playing a single pair wayyyyyyyyyy too aggressively and my buddy saw into why. I see these idiots playing Ax and Kx so I want to extract value from them with my tptk, but what ends up happening is I trap myself in a big pot because I'm trying to squeeze value out of a spot where there really isn't any.



Watching some of the top pros play, they're very delicate with one pair holdings, and I took this "newfound" (Quotes cuz I used to know this but a layoff kinda killed me) knowledge to the tables, feeling like a new player. Here's what happened for a short session.

















So I did very well at 46.45bb/100, but I should've been better. I had one hand, ONE HAND that I played -EV, and I should've gotten away. And wouldn't you know, Top Pair Top Kicker was it. AK raised it up got one caller behind me. Flop comes [Ac Qh 8c] Now I know I don't want to play these one pair hands for big pots so I check, and villain checks behind, so far so good.

Turn [Ac Qh 8c] [7d]


Okay, club didn't hit, likely to be ahead and only one card to come so I'll put a bet in, if I'm called I'm going to check the river and call a reasonable sized bet. I bet about 1/3 of the pot, and get min-raised! These usually scare me, and I instantly was like, is this AQ? No he probably would've bet the flop, did he hit a set and slowplay? Did he really hit the 7? I wasn't sure at this point, and I think a fold would've been okay. Instead I called, hoping that we might check the river through and see who wins.


River [Ac Qh 8c] [7d] [2s]


Well that doesn't change anything. Let's check and hope he checks behind. I check, and he bets 3/4 pot. After a min-raise followed by a solid bet, I have to know that one pair isn't gonna do it, but for some reason I make the call anyway and throw away some money, maybe just to see it I don't know. Anyway he shows A7 for a turned 2 pair. I don't mind most of the play up untill the calling on the river, I don't know what I was thinking there really. Horrible play. If I hadn't made that call, I would've been up 51.7bb/100 a difference of 5bb/100!!!! That difference is what many consider a solid winrate, so I simply can't be making these plays anymore.

I'm planning on an intense night tonight. It's Friday, I'm going to rest up, and in a couple of hours I'm going to be logging some serious time. I can smell the .10/.25 and I want to take it down.